Decoding AI Diffusion: Forecasting the path of transformative AI across industries

How will the age of transformative AI unfold, and how will different sectors of the economy be impacted? This research develops a framework to anticipate the uneven diffusion of AI across the economy, challenging assumptions of rapid, uniform adoption. By analyzing sectoral factors, our framework helps to identify which industries may face the most disruption from AI and how soon. By mapping this heterogeneous adoption landscape, we provide insights that allow researchers, firms, and policymakers to better prepare for the economic impacts of transformative AI.